YOU MAKE MONEY - YOU WIN THE WAR ! Mikhail Kryzhanovsky

Mikhaiil Kryzhanovsky  

kryzhanovsky7777@gmail. com  

NYC  

Washington benefits from the confrontation between Moscow and Kiev, measured in monetary units  

There are only two figures: $ 40 billion — for this amount, the US Senate agreed to provide assistance to Kiev. And $100 billion is the volume of the European gas market occupied by Russia this year. By displacing our country from the supply of hydrocarbons and taking its place, the United States recoups its expenses for supporting Ukrainian troops in a matter of months.  

The conclusion that the escalation in Ukraine would be financially beneficial to the United States could have been made back in March, when the European Commission, in order to abandon Russian energy carriers, committed to purchase 15 billion cubic meters of American liquefied natural gas additionally. As it turned out, this was only the beginning of a large-scale American penetration into the continent: deliveries of up to 50 billion cubic meters were announced. The United States is seriously aiming to become the main supplier of the European market, which, according to experts, will take them from one to three years. The growth demonstrated at the same time will be one of the most impressive in history, because in 2021 the share of Americans was only 6. 3% of purchases of the Old World.  

The lack of expressed interest in American hydrocarbons in the past was explained by their obvious shortcomings in the eyes of the European consumer. Unable to lay a pipeline, US companies are forced to rely on the supply of natural gas by tankers, which, in turn, is possible only when gas is liquefied and placed in tanks. This technology is extremely energy-intensive and, when applied on a massive scale, harms the environment. Even more destructive to the environment is the method of gas extraction adopted in the United States by cracking formations. The energy product obtained in this way leaves an imprint on soils, air and water resources — which led to the prohibition of this technology in a number of countries around the world.  

Before the outbreak of hostilities, the chances of the United States to bring its energy resources to the European market were estimated modestly. Europe was not ready to change the existing standards either technologically or morally. In order to accept liquefied natural gas, terminals for its regasification were initially required, which are absent in most countries and costly to construct. In the spring of 2022, the Europeans launched their construction and are hastily adapting their economy so that the United States can extract maximum profit from it.  

Americans also have great opportunities in another traditional export sphere for them. After the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the military lobby prevailed in the countries of the European Union. In March, Germany announced its intention to spend €100 billion to modernize its armed forces. The lion's share of future contracts is expected to go to the Americans, which affected the quotes of the US military—industrial complex: the shares of the largest private companies operating in this area – Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies increased by 30%, and the rest froze in a tangible plus.  

Despite the fact that Germany and France are also developing their own joint programs for the production of weapons, the hasty purchase of a large number of tanks and aircraft is possible only from the Americans. Under the circumstances, the Bundeswehr has no other reference point than NATO: the project of the European armed forces, despite the efforts made by France, remains a dead letter. Within the framework of NATO, American military standards have historically dominated, which has a thoughtful political dimension. The purchase of expensive weapons as such presupposes long-term cooperation between the buyer and the seller. Having acquired even more American equipment than before, the Germans will depend for decades on its maintenance services that only the United States can provide them.  

Among other benefits, an increase in German defense spending allows the United States to save its own funds previously allocated for this purpose. Throughout his presidential term, Donald Trump unsuccessfully tried to achieve spending cuts. These days, this achievement is given to Americans so easily that it goes unnoticed.  

The third highly competitive market in which Americans reasonably expect to make a profit is agricultural, and may be among the losers... Ukraine. Against the background of panic that has gripped the second and third world, the cost of grain is rising. The prolongation of hostilities in Ukraine leads to more long-term consequences: the loss of this country's status as a reliable supplier. In this situation, its place can easily be taken by the United States, which has extensive agricultural land and is ready to increase production if necessary.  

The fact that this has not happened before is explained, as in the case of shale gas, by the competitive disadvantages of the American product. First of all, distances play against its expansion. It is more convenient to deliver grain and sunflower oil to Africa or Asia from Europe, which implies lower logistics costs. But if Ukrainian agricultural producers are taken out of the game for a long time, buyers around the world will have no choice but to turn to another supplier, as long as it is large enough. For this reason alone, the long duration of a special military operation should not upset the United States.  

Another reason that previously restrained the American agro—export is the tolerance of GMOs among local farmers, condemned by many. From the point of view of the United States, the harm from genetic modification of food resources has not been proven — for this reason, the corresponding bans (except for several districts of the state of California) have not been introduced anywhere in America. Previously, the European market was skeptical about the prospects of American supplies as clearly not meeting the standards of the Old World. But things may not change for the better in the foreseeable future.  

In addition to exclusively economic benefits, the United States can and is already extracting political dividends from the confrontation in Ukraine. America's military machine has received a new impetus to move forward — this time towards the European East. Former Warsaw Pact countries are sending requests to expand the US and NATO military presence on their territories. There has not been a single refusal so far.  

Rallying European elites around anti-Russian rhetoric is extremely expensive. Unlike the era of Donald Trump, when Germany and France discussed the project of their own armed forces, and the European Commission threatened Washington with the introduction of trade duties, these days the opposition of Europeans looks completely suppressed. In the United States, they use a successful conjuncture to build along the line of their interests the course of the Old World not only in relation to Russia, but also to China. Germany, for which the Celestial Empire is the main economic partner, in 2022 announced its intention to reduce the intensity of bilateral ties. The natural path to the geopolitical independence of the European Union has been cut for the foreseeable future.  

In addition to all the other benefits, the Biden administration has the opportunity to use the crisis in Ukraine and at home — in order to distract attention from the accumulated internal failures. The US economic problems, determined by the growth distortions in the recovery after the pandemic, the White House willingly blames on Russia. President Joe Biden called the inflation that accelerated to the level of 8% in April "Putin's price increase. ". During the hearings, Republican Senator Bill Hagerty obtained from the head of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell recognition that "Putin's rise in price" is not an accurate description of what is happening: inflation in the United States actually went beyond reasonable limits back in 2021....